Proof Point
Level 4 and 5 cars expected to be mainstream after 2028, making up close to half of new cars sold in U.S., EU, and China by 2030
U.S., EU, and China New Car Sales by Level of Autonomy
2017F – 2030F (millions)
| Note: | Levels of autonomy based on SAE International's Five Levels of Vehicle Automation |
Proof Point Findings
- Autonomous Car – Vehicle capable of sensing environment and navigating without human input
- Growing Cars Sales – New cars sold in U.S., EU, and China projected to grow 2% annually between 2017 and 2030, from 63 million to 82 million
- Declining Level 1 Cars – Level 1 cars (i.e. vehicles with limited degree of autonomy) estimated to make up 76% of new cars sold in 2020, but will significantly decline to 31% by 2025 and 1% by 2030, as cars with higher levels of autonomy gain traction
- Mainstream Adoption of Level 4/5 Cars – Level 4 and 5 cars (i.e. vehicles with full control in most, if not all situations), forecasted to go mainstream after 2028, making up 49% of new cars sold in U.S., EU, and China by 2030
- Key Drivers – Include increasing number of entrants of self-driving cars in market, rapidly improving autonomous vehicle technologies, deployment of semi-autonomous driving features in current cars, and easing government regulations to test driverless vehicles on public roads
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Accelerator |
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Sector |
Transportation and Logistics
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Source |
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Date Last Updated |
February 20, 2018
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